July 28, 2021

The Cardinals need to stop bidding against themselves (Viva El Birdos)


Last Spring, the Cardinals signed three veteran players to contract extensions: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter and Miles Mikolas. The moves prevented the Cardinals from having to bid for the players once they hit the open market (they did have an option on Carpenter).

So let’s see how the trio performed, comparing their preseason ZiPS projections to their actual Fangraphs WAR:


The Cardinals bid against themselves expecting to get the guys in the first column. Instead, they got the guys in the second column. If each of these players were on the open market right now, there’s no way they would get the kind of deal the Cardinals swooped in and preemptively signed them to.

This should be a wakeup call to the front office that their preferred method of doing business for 20+ years is no longer the way baseball works. In fact, ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski touched on this in a great thread yesterday:

Read “The Cardinals need to stop bidding against themselves” at Viva El Birdos